July 25, 2009


Jim Manzi:

So, naturally we just go to the escrowed set of [anthropogenic global warming] models with their predictions made over the past 20 years or so, enter in all data for actual emissions, volcanic activity, and other model inputs for the time from the prediction was made until today, and then run the mdoels and compare their outputs to actual temperature change in order to build a distribution of model accuracy, right? Ha ha. Needless to say, no such repository exists.

Yeah, why not?

I heard the other day that the Marines SF are going to start being trained in Pashto, Dari, and Urdu.  My first thought was, "What took you so long?"  Really, we haven't had this idea until eight years into the war?

I had the same thought when I read that Manzi paragraph: no one has thought to compare global warming model predictions to actual data?  Sheesh.

Posted by: Sarah at 06:07 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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That's what happens when we assume people have common sense.

Posted by: Mare at July 25, 2009 07:15 AM (HUa8I)

2 PreCISEly. It's so destructive to political dogma to actually consider that you could be wrong, LOL! Well, maybe "LOL" is inappropriate, considering the all-too-serious consequences that are being imposed on us as a result of that wrong-line dogma...

Posted by: Krista at July 25, 2009 10:24 AM (sUTgZ)

3 Sweetie,

If the glueball warmening folks used actual data, then NONE of their models work.  That's why they don't acknowledge things like ocean temperatures, or that big-assed orange ball and solar flare activity having an impact on climate.

Second, since when has the USMC been known for being deep thinkers?  First, we'll teach them languages.  Next, bathing; and finally, how to use spoons without hurting your eyes....

Posted by: chuck at July 25, 2009 11:10 AM (bMH2g)

4 During the Stalin era in the USSR, the official version of genetics was Lysenkoism, which taught that acquired characteristics are inherited (wrong! giraffes do not have long necks because of stretching)--genetics of course has very practical applications in agriculture, and geneticists who challenged Lysenkoism were actually shot. Some of our climate-change "experts" seem to want to go down a similar path.

People who do mathematical modeling in a responsible way and who respect the customers they are doing it for carry out & make available a "sensitivity analysis" which shows how the conclusions change when any of the assumptions are varied. I haven't seen much in the way of sensitivity analyses in the voluminous public discussions of global warming; I *have* seen a lot of ad hominem attacks on anyone who dares challenge the official view.

Posted by: david foster at July 25, 2009 06:08 PM (uWlpq)

5 Sarah,

What little I have seen of the language policy of the military over the last few years has been disappointing. I think German, Italian, and Japanese were taken a lot more seriously in WWII.

There is no way that a one-year course can make Marines - or anyone - "fluent" in languages that are not as close to English as, say, Spanish. Most certainly not if they're only learning "two new phrases" a day!


Some of our climate-change "experts" seem to want to go down a similar path.

That's a pretty harsh charge. I don't think "a lot of ad hominem attacks on anyone who dares challenge the official view" will necessarily lead to executions. Americans can get very loud and angry, but they generally haven't resorted to violence ... yet.

Posted by: Amritas at July 25, 2009 07:48 PM (h9KHg)

6 Amiritas...a harsh charge indeed, and deliberately so. I have seen statements from climate-change "experts," some of them prominent, who have asserted that disagreement with climate change is on a par with Holocaust denial, and some of them have asserted that such disagreement should be prohibited. There are also scientists who feel their careers would suffer or have suffered should they challenge the orthodoxy.

When you say "Americans can get very loud & angry but generally haven't resorted to violence..yet," I think you're thinking about good old rough-and-tumble American debate. But there are a lot of people in our society today who don't really agree with our free-speech traditions.

A guy in my high school was fond of misquoting Voltaire--"Death to what you say and I disagree with your right to say it." He was kidding (I think). Many of those of the "progressive" side are not.

Posted by: david foster at July 25, 2009 08:19 PM (uWlpq)

7 As a data point, the language schools and their student allocations at the Defense Language Institute are decided YEARS in advance.  The Marines are probably only 3 or 4 years behind the power curve, not 8.  That's par for the course.

Like I should talk--I took Russian there in 2004-5.  They never got tired of telling us that the Cold War was over when justifying cutting our teaching staff or moving us to an even older building.


Posted by: Sig at July 25, 2009 08:24 PM (unCAk)

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