I HEART ART
If Art Laffer thinks we're boned...well, yikes.
“In anticipation of known tax increases the economy will shift income
and output from 2011 -- the higher tax year -- into 2010 -- the lower
tax year. As a result of this income shift, 2010 will look a lot better
than it should, and 2011 will be a train wreck,†he predicts.
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Thanks for linking to Laffer's article. I just assumed the rest of Obama's reign would be straight downhill, so I didn't expect Laffer's "false recovery." His argument would be stronger if he had pointed out previous false recoveries.
I wonder how the public would react to a federal tax holiday. Unlike bailouts, such a holiday would directly benefit ordinary people without taking money out of anyone's pockets.
Posted by: Amritas at January 31, 2010 09:19 PM (TZltr)
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I know it's an appeal to authority, but I like to think that his argument is strong enough by virtue of his being Art freaking Laffer
Posted by: Sarah at February 01, 2010 08:47 AM (gWUle)
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I think my kids and I will take our normal Halloween tradition of watching scary movies all month long and turn it into watching financial returns.
Much more terrifying.
Posted by: airforcewife at February 01, 2010 01:21 PM (uE3SA)
4
I keep thinking about Laffer's recommendation of a one year, nine month tax holiday. The impact that would have on the average American family is astounding. But then, what would we do with all of those IRS workers and accountants? How frustrated would people be when they had to start paying taxes again, and realized exactly how much wealth the system is stealing from them every year. Thanks for the great article!
Posted by: Val L. at February 02, 2010 12:40 PM (F4Qv7)
1If, as a contracted employee who signed on for the sole purpose of
making money, I did everything I was supposed to do to earn a payout of
$5 million dollars, I would expect to be paid. I assumed a level of
risk, and preformed as asked. A deal is a deal.
When is a deal not a deal? When is it acceptable to break a contract? Those who regard the AIG bonuses as the necessary outcomes of inviolable contracts may not regard other contracts as equally sacred.
And, who are these guys that crafted these unbreakable contracts? Every
CEO and board member should be thinking to themselves, "Next time I
have a contract I need made up, that's who I want on my side of the
negotiating table." Talk about rocket scientists on Wall Street!
They're not on the trading floor but in the legal department.
If history and physics tell us anything, it’s the guaranteed failure of
all things, including companies, countries, people, and entire
civilizations. (Packard? The USSR? George Burns? Rome?)
Yes, all. I'd add the USA to the list. When will it fall? Is it falling?
Posted by: amritas at January 21, 2010 06:20 PM (+nV09)
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I don't know if all things fail. Most things fail. Things which are not properly maintained, certainly. Things which move even moreso. The Egyptian pyramids still stand.
I don't think that the US will fail simply as a function of the nature of things. It may grow or morph into something else. If we look at failure in absolute terms, where something ceases to exist, then as long as a Packard operates on a road, the company still (in a sense) exists.
The US can trace its history to the Magna Charta, and even to Hammurabi's first codified law. What nations in the future will trace their origins to us? When the combined federation of planets signs its charter, will that charter have origins in the US constitution? The United States isn't a living thing, it is an idea. Ideas are notoriously hard to kill, just ask Buddha, Christ, Abraham, Mohammed (peanut butter on him) and the Sumerians.
I doubt there is much about our country that our founders would recognize (even less that they would approve, but that goes beyond the scope of this comment.) That doesn't mean that their America doesn't exist, or that we will eventually decline and then become dispersed like the legions of Rome. It means that anything which changes can adapt, and adaptability is what makes things resilient. The founders sought only to create a *more* perfect union. Their intent was not to create *the* perfect society, nor that we should settle for the one we have, and that it was the responsibility of generations to improve that society, learning from the mistakes of their parents and grandparents.
What can the government learn from the contractual bonus debacle? That the free market works. That they cannot possibly hope to have lawyers working for the government (except the very rare few who serve for services' sake) who can compete professionally with the lawyers who earn millions writing contracts for wall street. It's roughly the same thing as a state champion high school football team playing the 6-time superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with the worst team they've ever fielded, the Steelers would absolutely murder the high school team. Both teams have drive and desire. Both teams know how to play the game. Both teams love the game. But only one team is populated with players drafted from the very best that the sport had to offer.
If your local congressperson (who, odds are, is a lawyer) were any good as a lawyer, they'd either be a judge or still be a lawyer. There's tons more money in private lawyerin' than there is in public politics (assuming an honest politician.)
Posted by: Chuck Z at January 21, 2010 10:18 PM (bMH2g)
THE SCOTT HEARD ROUND THE WORLD
I happily watched the results of last night's election in Massachusetts and couldn't believe what I was seeing. It's definitely a step in the right direction, and if solid people keep running for office, we may see the pendulum swing the other way. Thank goodness.
I only wish Dean Barnett were still here to see it.
Massachusetts elected a Republican. Anything is possible. And now that Democrats have that fear and Republicans have that hope...well, I am excited to see what might happen in the fall.
Oda Mae pointed out that there's already a Hitler video. I love the Hitler meme, and this one is particularly good.
Posted by: Sarah at
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THE DOMINO'S MODEL
This is genius. Genius of Domino's, genius when applied to the GOP, just genius. What the GOP can learn from a pizza chain If something isn't working, you can either bury your head in the sand or face it head on and change. I wish the president of Domino's were running the US government right now. Mea culpa video here. Makes me want to go try a Domino's pizza again.
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Unfortunately, the GOP (and the DNC) don't bother answering to customer complaints.
When all you have is option "a" or option "A", it doesn't matter what kind of pizza you order.
Dominoes will rebound, I think, if they can make a quality product and sell it competitively. For the record, they seem to have had a head-on collision with the noid, rather than heeding their own advice to avoid him. The big question is whether this will rebound them short-term, until they opt to appease shareholders and stop producing a quality product--instead opting for cheaper ingredients at the cost of losing customers.
The major advantage that dominoes had so many years ago: a nationally recognized brand, decent pizza, and a guarantee.
Other nationally recognized brands have risen, the guarantee went away, and there is better pizza to be had, and people are realizing they can actually have pizza they want, not just the kind of pizza that is offered.
Yep. Swap "Pizza" with "GOP" or "DNC" and it works. At least Dominoes is taking competition seriously, instead of just calling their competition "pizzabaggers."
Posted by: Chuck Z at January 08, 2010 03:36 PM (bMH2g)
I get about 10 pounds of political direct mail per week, almost all of it from Republican/conservative/libertarian organizations. From a pure marketing standpoint, 90% of it is, in my not-at-all-humble opinion, just awful.
When somebody gets an envelope that has no return address but says "OPEN IMMEDIATELY--Special Survey--Immediate Response Required--Serial #545454353453"...what do they think the reaction is going to be? What do they think this is, some TV version of the 1950s?...
"Maw! Maw! We got us some MAIL"
"Who's it from, Paw?"
"Don't know, but it looks IMPORTANT! It's got a BIG LONG NUMBER on it! And it SAYS it's real important!'
"Better open it RIGHT NOW, Paw!"
Sheeesh...
Posted by: david foster at January 08, 2010 05:52 PM (uWlpq)
RATIONALITY UNDER INTERROGATION
Jonah Goldberg wonders if terrorists, even if they know Americans cannot kill them in custody, would still break under the stress of interrogation. (Read the whole thing for a complete understanding of the post.)
All I can add on this matter is what I know secondhand from my husband. After a week of "interrogation" at SERE school, he said he probably could've murdered one of the guards without hesitation if he thought it meant escape. The same guards he rationally knew were paid employees there to train him. And that if he ever saw one of them out at Walmart, he's not sure he could see them as normal human beings. He barely wanted to speak to them once the training was over.
So I think that letting terrorists read our playbook is a bad thing, but weeks or months of interrogation probably destroys whatever rationality one may have towards the situation.
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One could argue that one should never write about topics one hasn't
experienced firsthand. That hasn't stopped me from writing about war,
but for some reason I am particularly reluctant to write about torture.
I feel like I'm guessing in the dark. I don't even know how effective
it is. Here is an objection I've never seen before:
Whenever a person who knows military secrets is captured by the
enemy, the colleagues of the person who was captured instantly take
action to render what he knows obsolete. For example, if we ever lost a
monthly code book when I was in the Army, they would immediately issue
new ones to everyone and order the prior code books be destroyed and
the prior codes never be used again.
Any future actions
that were known by the captured person would be canceled or greatly
modified. Hidden assets or persons would immediately be moved to new
locations unknown to the captured person.
If you were an
enemy secret spy or saboteur, the moment you heard a colleague who knew
your identity or location was captured by the enemy, you would hightail
it and most likely get completely out of the undercover business.
During World War II, Allied personnel who escaped from behind German
lines were not allowed to be on the front any more for fear they might
be recaptured and give up the identities of those who helped them
escape.
This has always been true of all militaries and spy
services. It does not matter whether the country that captured the
person has a policy for or against torture. Mere incarceration causes
many to talk.
So not only is information obtained by torture
usually useless because a tortured person will tell you whatever you
want to hear even if he knows nothing about it. [This is a problem with surveys in general. -A] Americans in World War
II who were tortured to reveal the secrets of the Norden Bomb Sight
drew many diagrams of how it worked even though they never knew how it
worked. But even the good information that a captured enemy knows is
generally useless because the mere fact that the person has been
captured means that the enemy will make immediate changes that renders
the information obsolete.
Two questions come to mind:
First, is it possible that some information a captured enemy knows is less subject to change than other information?
Second, does it make sense to ask for relatively static information first, particularly during the time lag (if any) between the capture of a prisoner and the enemy's knowledge of the capture?
Notice I wrote "ask for" instead of "torture to obtain". I am interested in the effectiveness of interrogation in general.
Posted by: Amritas at January 05, 2010 11:22 AM (+nV09)
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I read this on my phone last night and was kinda in agreement with you about it. I think it is incredibly stupid to allow things to make the light of day that will give aide and comfort to the enemy. But I would like to think the self assured-ness will be worn down by the actual interrogation (TORTURE!) 'process'.
And that is on Mark's summer school checklist before he leaves. Then he goes directly to another something or other. Not sure when I will see him after he is done with that, so I am interested in how he will do.
Posted by: wifeunit at January 05, 2010 01:01 PM (4B1kO)
I read this on my phone last night and was kinda in agreement with you about it.
Do you find yourself reading more on a phone than an actual computer? I think I might be reaching that point.
I think it is incredibly stupid to allow things to make the light of day that will give aide and comfort to the enemy.
I agree. Has anyone argued that this is a good thing for national defense (as opposed to ... other agendas)?
But I would like to think the self assured-ness will be worn down by the actual interrogation (TORTURE!) 'process'.
As the article I linked to says,
Mere incarceration causes
many to talk.
Is that true?
And that is on Mark's summer school checklist before he leaves. Then
he goes directly to another something or other. Not sure when I will
see him after he is done with that, so I am interested in how he will
do.
He's going to SERE, or something like it? As a reader of Sarah's blog, you have some idea of what to expect ... shudder ...
Posted by: Amritas at January 05, 2010 04:51 PM (+nV09)
Sincerely, if I recognized an individual as being paid to do [things I don't even know the smallest part of], I'd have trouble looking at them like human beings if I saw them at Walmart, too.
I understand the earnest purpose in theory, but I don't even think that how a lot of TI/DIs behave is right. I'm sure that's ungrateful heresy for a milspouse, but there it is. Hubby has considerably more forbearance, which serves him well.
As to the "real issue," it's an interesting question. I tend to agree with your thought that the incarceration might do just fine, if anything must "do" to aid interrogation. I'm sure that Cabin Fever gets more acute in those situations.
Posted by: Krista at January 05, 2010 05:35 PM (sUTgZ)
5
I have never been, and never expect to be, interrogated in any manner, but I read a lot of these theories about how we should waterboard the panty bomber (I like Mark Steyn's name for him) and I just think, "why do they think a man who would blow off his own genitals would break with waterboarding." In his case it is possible he would think it would get him into the afterlife in a way he was not able to do on his own. Also, they may have trained him in being able to withstand it in the same way we train our people to withstand it. I do believe in intense interrogations, there are some things we need to know.
Posted by: Ruth H at January 05, 2010 08:03 PM (WPw5a)
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MacGyver felt pretty much the same way about his SERE experience (though it was nothing like your husband's as it was "SERE light" for flight school). He purposely avoided his guards and interrogators for that reason. He was so close to graduation and didn't want to ruin it by not being able to control himself if he were to encounter one of them.
I've been interrogated once and can honestly say that I should never be trusted with state secrets - I folded like a house of cards. Granted, they pulled a hard-core "good cop/bad cop" routine on me but you'd think, after years of watching "Law and Order", I'd know how to resist.
Nope.
I never, in my entire life, want to go through that again. Ever.
Posted by: HomefrontSix at January 05, 2010 09:02 PM (umhCJ)
WHO OWNS THOSE MINUTES?
Think the government doesn't think it owns you? That it needs its hand in everything? That it needs to be the middle man in every transaction?
Washington D.C. is suing AT&T for the amount of money leftover when DC residents don't use all the balance on their prepaid calling cards.
The government thinks it owns whatever minutes you don't use when you buy a calling card from a private company.
1
Yep...just like the new penalties for flights delayed and sitting on the tarmac for a certain period of time: it won't be paid to the people sitting on the plane for their inconvenience...nope, it will be paid directly to the government.
Posted by: calivalleygirl at January 04, 2010 11:58 AM (3ICA/)
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No comment just letting out a big heavy sigh and shaking my head.
Posted by: MaryIndiana at January 04, 2010 12:31 PM (ieVn9)
For now. That article brings up a good point. A little freedom is a big distraction. There was and is no conspiracy to control us. But why control trivia when real power lies elsewhere?
That article was written in 1997, but it's still relevant today. I couldn't help but think of the current crisis when I read this line:
But
in a time of great crisis called the Great Economic Downturn, the
people and their leaders clamored for "national solutions to national
problems"
And if you think this is bad -
Now
the people had the pleasure of being governed by not one, but two
beneficent governments with two sets of laws regulating the same
things.
We will never know who these "CIA employees" were who were killed in Afghanistan. They will never be publicly recognized. Their families will not be openly lauded for their sacrifice.
They served in silence and have died in silence.
But I am thinking about them today, and silently thanking them for their service to our country.
1
I ma glad we have such people who would sacrifice all, knowing they risked all without mention of their names, deeds, or achievements. It is a hallmark of their success that they were specifically targeted by our nations' enemy. Their names are unknown, but their sacrifices will long be remembered.
Posted by: Chuck Z at January 01, 2010 10:29 AM (bMH2g)
The suicide bomber who killed seven CIA agents in Afghanistan had been courted by the US as a possible informant, US intelligence sources have said [...]
A US official, and former CIA employee, said such people were often not required to go through full security checks in order to help gain their trust.
"When you're trying to build a rapport and literally ask them to risk [their lives] for you, you've got a lot to do to build their trust," he told the Associated Press news agency.
If these 'informants' were truly willing to help America, they should also have been willing to be searched. Diana West asked,
What happened to the 'but verify' in trust? What happened to the "intelligence" in CIA?
Posted by: Amritas at January 01, 2010 04:27 PM (ke9P1)
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<i>But I am thinking about them today, and silently thanking them for their service to our country. </i>
You and me both.
Posted by: HomefrontSix at January 01, 2010 08:18 PM (umhCJ)
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There is neither happiness nor misery in the world; there is only the comparison of one state with another, nothing more. He who has felt the deepest grief is best able to experience supreme happiness. We must have felt what it is to die, Morrel, that we may appreciate the enjoyments of living. --The Count of Monte Cristo--
While our troops go out to defend our country, it is incumbent upon us to make the country worth defending. --Deskmerc--
Contrary to what you've just seen, war is neither glamorous nor fun. There are no winners, only losers. There are no good wars, with the following exceptions: The American Revolution, WWII, and the Star Wars Trilogy. --Bart Simpson--
If you want to be a peacemaker, you've gotta learn to kick ass. --Sheriff of East Houston, Superman II--
Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without an accordion. You just leave a lot of useless noisy baggage behind. --Jed Babbin--
Dante once said that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality. --President John F. Kennedy--
War is a bloody, killing business. You've got to spill their blood, or they will spill yours. --General Patton--
We've gotta keep our heads until this peace craze blows over. --Full Metal Jacket--
Those who threaten us and kill innocents around the world do not need to be treated more sensitively. They need to be destroyed. --Dick Cheney--
The Flag has to come first if freedom is to survive. --Col Steven Arrington--
The purpose of diplomacy isn't to make us feel good about Eurocentric diplomatic skills, and having countries from the axis of chocolate tie our shoelaces together does nothing to advance our infantry. --Sir George--
I just don't care about the criticism I receive every day, because I know the cause I defend is right. --Oriol--
It's days like this when we're reminded that freedom isn't free. --Chaplain Jacob--
Bumper stickers aren't going to accomplish some of the missions this country is going to face. --David Smith--
The success of multilateralism is measured not merely by following a process, but by achieving results. --President Bush--
Live and act within the limit of your knowledge and keep expanding it to the limit of your life.
--John Galt--
First, go buy a six pack and swig it all down. Then, watch Ace Ventura. And after that, buy a Hard Rock Cafe shirt and come talk to me. You really need to lighten up, man.
--Sminklemeyer--
You've got to kill people, and when you've killed enough they stop fighting --General Curtis Lemay--
If we wish to be free, if we mean to preserve inviolate those inestimable privileges for which we have been so long contending, if we mean not basely to abandon the noble struggle in which we have been so long engaged, and which we have pledged ourselves never to abandon until the glorious object of our contest shall be obtained -- we must fight! --Patrick Henry--
America has never been united by blood or birth or soil. We are bound by ideals that move us beyond our backgrounds, lift us above our interests and teach us what it means to be citizens. Every child must be taught these principles. Every citizen must uphold them. And every immigrant, by embracing these ideals, makes our country more, not less, American. --President George W. Bush--
are usually just cheerleading sessions, full of sound and fury and signifying nothing but a soothing reduction in blood pressure brought about by the narcotic high of being agreed with. --Bill Whittle
War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.
--John Stuart Mill--
We are determined that before the sun sets on this terrible struggle, our flag will be recognized throughout the world as a symbol of freedom on the one hand and of overwhelming force on the other. --General George Marshall--
We can continue to try and clean up the gutters all over the world and spend all of our resources looking at just the dirty spots and trying to make them clean. Or we can lift our eyes up and look into the skies and move forward in an evolutionary way.
--Buzz Aldrin--
America is the greatest, freest and most decent society in existence. It is an oasis of goodness in a desert of cynicism and barbarism. This country, once an experiment unique in the world, is now the last best hope for the world.
--Dinesh D'Souza--
Recent anti-Israel protests remind us again of our era's peculiar alliance: the most violent, intolerant, militantly religious movement in modern times has the peace movement on its side. --James Lileks--
As a wise man once said: we will pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
Unless the price is too high, the burden too great, the hardship too hard, the friend acts disproportionately, and the foe fights back. In which case, we need a timetable.
--James Lileks--
I am not willing to kill a man so that he will agree with my faith, but I am prepared to kill a man so that he cannot force my compatriots to submit to his.
--Froggy--
You can say what you want about President Bush; but the truth is that he can take a punch. The man has taken a swift kick in the crotch for breakfast every day for 6 years and he keeps getting up with a smile in his heart and a sense of swift determination to see the job through to the best of his abilties.
--Varifrank--
In a perfect world, We'd live in peace and love and harmony with each oither and the world, but then, in a perfect world, Yoko would have taken the bullet.
--SarahBellum--
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free. --Ronald Reagan--
America is rather like life. You can usually find in it what you look for. It will probably be interesting, and it is sure to be large. --E.M. Forster--
Do not fear the enemy, for your enemy can only take your life. It is far better that you fear the media, for they will steal your HONOR. That awful power, the public opinion of a nation, is created in America by a horde of ignorant, self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditching and shoemaking and fetched up in journalism on their way to the poorhouse. --Mark Twain--
The Enlightenment was followed by the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars, which touched every European state, sparked vicious guerrilla conflicts across the Continent and killed millions. Then, things really turned ugly after the invention of soccer. --Iowahawk--
Every time I meet an Iraqi Army Soldier or Policeman that I haven't met before, I shake his hand and thank him for his service. Many times I am thanked for being here and helping his country. I always tell them that free people help each other and that those that truly value freedom help those seeking it no matter the cost. --Jack Army--
Right, left - the terms are useless nowadays anyway. There are statists, and there are individualists. There are pessimists, and optimists. There are people who look backwards and trust in the West, and those who look forward and trust in The World. Those are the continuums that seem to matter the most right now. --Lileks--
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
--Winston Churchill--
A man or a nation is not placed upon this earth to do merely what is pleasant and what is profitable. It is often called upon to carry out what is both unpleasant and unprofitable, but if it is obviously right it is mere shirking not to undertake it. --Arthur Conan Doyle--
A man who has nothing which he cares about more than he does about his personal safety is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the existing of better men than himself. --John Stuart Mill--
After the attacks on September 11, 2001, most of the sheep, that is, most citizens in America said, "Thank God I wasn't on one of those planes." The sheepdogs, the warriors, said, "Dear God, I wish I could have been on one of those planes. Maybe I could have made a difference." --Dave Grossman--
At heart I’m a cowboy; my attitude is if they’re not going to stand up and fight for what they believe in then they can go pound sand. --Bill Whittle--
A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. --Alexander Tyler--
By that time a village half-wit could see what generations of professors had pretended not to notice. --Atlas Shrugged--
I kept asking Clarence why our world seemed to be collapsing and everything seemed so shitty. And he'd say, "That's the way it goes, but don't forget, it goes the other way too." --Alabama Worley--
So Bush is history, and we have a new president who promises to heal the planet, and yet the jihadists don’t seem to have got the Obama message that there are no enemies, just friends we haven’t yet held talks without preconditions with.
--Mark Steyn--
"I had started alone in this journey called life, people started
gathering up on the way, and the caravan got bigger everyday." --Urdu couplet
The book and the sword are the two things that control the world. We either gonna control them through knowledge and influence their minds, or we gonna bring the sword and take their heads off. --RZA--
It's a daily game of public Frogger, hopping frantically to avoid being crushed under the weight of your own narcissism, banality, and plain old stupidity. --Mary Katharine Ham--
There are more instances of the abridgment of freedoms
of the people by gradual and silent encroachment of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations. --James Madison--
It is in the heat of emotion that good people must remember to stand on principle. --Larry Elder--
Please show this to the president and ask him to remember the wishes of the forgotten man, that is, the one who dared to vote against him. We expect to be tramped on but we do wish the stepping would be a little less hard. --from a letter to Eleanor Roosevelt--
The world economy depends every day on some engineer, farmer, architect, radiator shop owner, truck driver or plumber getting up at 5AM, going to work, toiling hard, and producing real wealth so that an array of bureaucrats, regulators, and redistributors can manage the proper allotment of much of the natural largess produced. --VDH--
Parents are often so busy with the physical rearing of children that they miss the glory of parenthood, just as the grandeur of the trees is lost when raking leaves. --Marcelene Cox--
