I'm a very scarred and broken person.

Yesterday, out of the blue, a friend of mine mused, "You know, you've been pregnant now pretty much non-stop for the past two years.  I don't know if I could have done that.  You're very strong."  And it was just...nice...to have someone acknowledge that, to acknowledge my perpetual state of stress and worry and fear for the past 2+ years.

And this friend is the eternal optimist, the person who kept telling me to keep my chin up, that it would all work out, that she was sure that this time would be the time...despite the fact that she has said this four times.

It was nice to finally have her acknowledge the crap sandwich I've been eating for so long.

I talked with Heidi recently, and she teases me that I still always worry about saying the wrong thing, about offending, about not properly acknowledging her suffering.  She said she is hard to offend.

I must be easy to offend.

You know the smartass expression "What do you want, a cookie?"  Yes, sometimes I feel like I want the cookie.  Or the medal.  Or whatever else people sarcastically offer to complaining people.

Sometimes I still want to go back and choke everyone who poo-pooed my problems as I went along.  Everyone who said that so-and-so had a miscarriage and got pregnant again the next month and everything was fine.  Everyone who scoffed at my woes and said I just haven't been patient enough yet.  Everyone who said I just wanted things to come too easily.

A year ago, I already thought this experience had made me a worse person.  That was still after only one miscarriage, for heaven's sake.

Some people deal with adversity with grace and composure, like Heidi and David.  They don't need the cookie.

I need the cookie.

I don't know if that makes me a bad person.  Probably.  But I dwell on it sometimes, I know unhealthily.

Posted by: Sarah at 09:20 AM | Comments (17) | Add Comment
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1

Chocolate chip, oatmeal & raison, sugar…???

 

For what it's worth I think you have handled it all with grace and composure.

Posted by: tim at July 30, 2009 11:46 AM (nno0f)

2 I agree with Tim.

Your readers are a tough bunch. Mostly military. Not the sort who are into Oprah-style sentimentality. No "Million Little Fibers" for them. Yet they're here. They could easily click away from your site and never come back. But they don't. So you must be doing something right.

We all want a cookie sometimes. It's OK. Just don't ask the government to give you one because it's your 'right'.

BTW, I was thinking about Heidi this morning on the way to work. And David ... and you.

Right now, my iPod happens to be playing a Swedish song called "On a Kangaroo". It's a sign.

Posted by: Amritas at July 30, 2009 12:35 PM (+nV09)

3

I so agree with Tim and Amritas. And oh what I would give to bake you the cookie that you deserve... Instead I will settle for lots of virtual hugs, good thoughts and prayers.

Posted by: jck at July 30, 2009 01:41 PM (fRt6P)

4 So, where do I send the cookies? ;D You deserve all the cookies your collected readership could bake. 

Posted by: Ruth H at July 30, 2009 02:10 PM (zlUde)

5 I'll send you the 3 dozen Ghirardelli chocolate chip cookies I baked last night. You definitely deserve them! :-)

Posted by: Heather at July 30, 2009 02:15 PM (BjblJ)

6 *gives you a cookie*

Posted by: John at July 30, 2009 04:12 PM (H4a70)

7 Aww, thanks everyone.  You put a tear in my eye...

Posted by: Sarah at July 30, 2009 05:11 PM (TWet1)

8 You deserve an award for all you've been through.  AND a cookie.  You've had A LOT thrown at you.  And 2 years of hope and uncertainty and fear and disappointment...  That just isn't fair.  It sucks.  You've handled it all with grace, dignity, AND a sense of humor.  Don't doubt that for an instant. 

Posted by: Val at July 30, 2009 05:28 PM (5btL/)

9 What everyone else said!

And if you think you didn't handle all this with grace and courage and so you are bad for needing a cookie, I don't even want to think of what I deserve for all my whining and complaining--It's certainly not something as nice as a cookie!

Posted by: FbL at July 30, 2009 05:58 PM (HwqvF)

10 I am the biggest emotional Veruca Salt there is.....

I do not think you are...

but I will say ginger snaps are supposed to help nausea

Posted by: awtm at July 30, 2009 11:17 PM (C4w1F)

11 As long as you keep making bacon cookies, you must share! 

I have a sock drawer full of medals, including a purple one I don't really want (nor did I ever want it) you are welcome to that--as I think you've earned it through your suffering with the Try2Care (tm) military health system. 

Posted by: chuck at July 31, 2009 12:21 AM (bMH2g)

12 You think it's unhealthy to dwell on the fact that you've had multiple miscarriages and have watched - often without the benefit of your husband by your side and often with the added bonus of idiot medical personnel - your hopes and dreams for a family crumble before your eyes?

Jesus, Sarah...how else do you expect to handle this? How does anyone else expect you to handle this? More to the point, WTH does it matter what anyone else thinks about how you handle it? You are handling it the best way YOU know how. And you're handling it. You're not in denial. You're facing the issue pretty much head on and you're trying to move forward.

I fail to see how that could ever be construed as "unhealthy".

Cut yourself some slack. You are doing just fine. And yes - this is going to change you. Fundamentally. For bad? For good? Who knows? Change is change. I think the biggest tragedy in all of it is if this whole thing comes to actually DEFINE you. And I don't see that. I see it as one square in the quilt of who you are as a person but I don't see this as truly defining you. You are a resilient person - I like that word more than I like "strong" because resilient people get knocked down and they get the crap beat out of them. But they get back UP.

You're resilient.

And you amaze me. And I'm glad you're my friend. And I'll stop now because I'm gushing ;~)

Posted by: HomefrontSix at July 31, 2009 04:47 AM (R4ZnA)

13 I like HF6's word - "resilient." It really is the best I'm aware of... *hugs & cookies* :-)

Posted by: Krista at August 01, 2009 02:17 PM (sUTgZ)

14

Handling things well is so overrated. Handle it however you damn well feel like handling it. And for goodness sake, who looks at a woman who's had a miscarriage and says "oh well I know a friend who went through the very same thing and SHE'S fine!" Well, you're different. You're situation is different and just because others have been there before you that doesn't mean you deserve any less whine-time or coddling if that's what you need. 

I think I'd feel the same way. Some people aren't complainers and abhor those who are. When something doen't go my way, I would really like a little time to complain about it.  So, on some small level, I understand what you want.

Cookies go good with wine. When you're unpregnant (and baby in arms), have a couple glasses. You deserve it.

Posted by: Sara Vidotto at August 02, 2009 03:09 PM (AnKbP)

15 It's late, but on a loooong road trip I was wondering and hoping.

So here's a cookie, virtual as it may be.  Hubby stole the stroopwafels, after all.  I admire and salute your courage. 

There's a reason we have three dogs now.

Posted by: Eowyn at August 02, 2009 08:02 PM (g/iMK)

16

Hey Sarah, I have a possible favor to ask you. Would you mind mentioning a fundraiser I am participating in? Each year crossfitters around the world workout for donations benefitting the wounded warrior project and athletes for a cure (prostate cancer).  There is no minimum donation required. The event is called Fight Gone Bad.  I understand if this is a conflict of interest and you can't do it. But if you can and you're willing, I'd love the support.

Posted by: Sara Vidotto at August 07, 2009 09:51 PM (oukWQ)

17 P.S. I have a donation page where people can donate online safely.  If you're willing, I'll send you the link and a FGB icon with it. 

Posted by: Sara Vidotto at August 07, 2009 09:52 PM (oukWQ)

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I always feel weird giving too much information, but I feel like I need to explain why I am so crazy and why this is such a rollercoaster for me.  To do so, I have to tell you personal stuff like how I woke up in the middle of the night bleeding profusely, more than last week, far more than simple spotting.  And how my heart just sank, and how I never fell back asleep and just kept bleeding and bleeding.

And how I spent another morning composing my "the baby is dead" post in my head.

But the baby is not dead.

John Elway baby is progressing just fine.  He even did a little dance for us on screen, which was probably the most amazing thing I've ever seen, and downright adorable.  Just a few little wiggles to say hello and to let me know that he's still there and still going strong.

Heartbeat looks good, umbilical cord growing strong, and we even saw one little arm.  (Hopefully there's another one just like it on the other side.)

He's almost an inch long.

And he's a he only because I now think of it as John Elway.  Despite my initial longing for a boy, I have completely come to terms with having a girl over the past 2.5 years and think that would be perfectly fine too.

But the bleeding, I cannot stand any more of it.  It causes so much stress.  The doctor assumes that it is a reaction to the progesterone supplements, which he says I only have to tough out for another week and a half.

This baby has made it further than any other baby before.  I feel good about that.  I will feel better once I stop bleeding.

Another look in the kangaroo pouch is scheduled for next week.

Posted by: Sarah at 12:20 PM | Comments (14) | Add Comment
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1 I am relieved the doctor feels comfortable there is a reason for the bleeding even if it is terribly scary.  I am so happy to hear everything is on track and hope things just keep on progressing. Minus the bleeding and nausea would be fantastic.  Yay for John Elway!

Posted by: wifeunit at July 29, 2009 12:44 PM (4B1kO)

2 I've been checking in all afternoon hoping to get the update.  It is so wonderful to hear that the baby is fine!  Continuing to be happy and hopeful.

Posted by: Courtney at July 29, 2009 12:44 PM (jKra5)

3

I'm so happy to hear that your pregnancy is still on course. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

Posted by: Val L. at July 29, 2009 12:56 PM (4iXKP)

4 I'm sitting here with tears of happiness in my eyes. I've checked three times here just like Courtney. What a thrill. I wish they had ultrasounds when I had babies.
The first one I saw was my granddaughter 16 years ago, she was full term (9.4 oz) and looked like her little nose was pressed up against a window. I had the most awesome feeling that I was in the middle of 180 years. I had left my 81 year old Mother in Rockport to fly to Sherman Oaks to be there when she was born and I figured she and my mother would have 90 years with advancements in medicine. To hear that heartbeat and see that baby was a feeling that truly describes awesome. She is 16 now, brilliant, planning to be a physician and starting this next semester of her junior  year she will be doing rounds at a hospital in anticipation of med school. She actually plans to also get a PhD to and do research.
Life is one day at a time, one week at a time and then beyond.

Posted by: Ruth H at July 29, 2009 01:18 PM (JCV5R)

5 I am sending you big hugs and love. I am getting slightly more happy for you as each week goes by. 

Posted by: Reasa at July 29, 2009 03:36 PM (uKniq)

6 An inch! An arm! Wiggly baby! I'm so happy for you.

Posted by: Heather at July 29, 2009 03:38 PM (BjblJ)

7 Yeah, the last two comments above pretty much cover it for me.  How wonderful.    I doubt I'll truly stop holding my breath for you until you're holding a healthy baby in your arms, but I let some air go today.  Just. Wonderful. 

*Keeping up with prayers, love, and happy thoughts (and happy tears)*

Posted by: FbL at July 29, 2009 05:31 PM (HwqvF)

8 If it's a boy, you know you're gonna have to name him Joey, right? 

Posted by: FbL at July 29, 2009 05:44 PM (HwqvF)

9 CDC urging pregnant women to get flu shots!

Hang in there BABY!!!


Good Luck

Sine Nomine

Posted by: Sine Nomine at July 29, 2009 05:49 PM (kjvtd)

10 YIPEEE!  Go John Elway! 

Posted by: RC at July 29, 2009 07:28 PM (0bg5E)

11 week-to-week kanagaroo photos! i can feel the incredible agony and stress and equal bits of joy that must bring. hang in there!

Posted by: Darla at July 29, 2009 10:54 PM (LP4DK)

12 I am so relieved every time I get an update like this.  Nothing that compares to your relief, I'm sure, and I can't imagine the emotional rollercoaster you are one when you wake up like that, or the hours you spend in the ER waiting on retarded medicos to take care of the kid with the sniffles before they get to you.

If you need someone to call the hospital and throw rank around, I'm more than willing to make a long-distance ass of myself, and my sister WORKS at the Pope/FT Bragg hospital, (till October) if you need an inside track.  A phone call is all it takes.  I can even fake a long-distance call from your DH calling all the way from "over there" if need be.  I have no shame if it'll help.

Other than that, Joseph Charles has a nice ring to it, as does Josephine Charlotte.  Since I doubt anyone can come up with a name that includes "pole position."

Posted by: chuck at July 30, 2009 07:49 AM (bMH2g)

13 Sarah - I was thinking about you yesterday/today. Am happy to read this latest update. Thinking of you

Posted by: Keri at July 30, 2009 08:20 AM (k6Euw)

14 quietly, quietly whispering, "go john elway!  go!"

Posted by: Lissa at July 30, 2009 09:01 AM (eSfKC)

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OK, I wish I were a kangaroo.

I am watching National Geographic.  Kangaroos have two awesome reproductive features that I wish I had.

1)  When the joey is 5 weeks along, it gets born and makes the trek up to the pouch to settle in for nine months.  What I wouldn't give to take my baby out and keep it in a nice, warm pocket for the rest of its gestation time, so I could peek in on it and make sure it's OK.

2)  Once the joey gets settled, the kangaroo mates again, producing a back-up embryo.  It sits dormant in embroyonic diapause, and if anything happens to the joey in the pouch, the back-up embryo starts to grow again to replace it.  Obviously, that also would've been a great feature for me.

Man, kangaroos have it made.

Posted by: Sarah at 04:39 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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1 Lols...

Posted by: CaliValleyGirl at July 22, 2009 04:57 PM (irIko)

2 Awww. I wonder how many other mothers want to go roo. Genetic engineering might make it possible. But then their kids might be teased as 'pouchers'. And becoming a kangawoman could have some unexpected side effects, like longer feet and an urge to hop.

What would you want to be if you were watching another channel?

Posted by: Amritas at July 22, 2009 06:32 PM (h9KHg)

3 I don't know if you would enjoy the other aspects of marsupial reproductive systems...you know, the dual vaginas and uteri. These merge together as needed to form a birth canal. That's three, er, orifices to manage. The male appendage related to all this is, well, bifurcated. Whether or not this is a bonus is not my call to make.

Posted by: deskmerc at July 23, 2009 01:10 AM (pYOXQ)

4 I love how your mind works. 

Posted by: FbL at July 24, 2009 12:08 AM (HwqvF)

5 Wow, have I learned a lot of fascinating things about kangaroos this morning! LOL... I love National Geographic. And Discovery. And Nova. And Nature. Maybe we should actually consider getting cable just for educational purposes... ;-)

Posted by: Krista at July 24, 2009 12:56 PM (sUTgZ)

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Well, we made it.
The baby has a heartbeat.
It grew exactly a week's worth of size and progress.

Whew.

Because that's not what I was expecting.

This morning I woke up to blood, heavier than I've had with any other pregnancy.  I sat the 20 minutes waiting to be seen just trying not to cry, trying not to compose the "my baby is dead" blog post in my head, trying not to imagine doing this over again.

You know, when I told my husband we should go for this, I easy peasy said, "We try once more before you go, and if it's a win, then we're great; and if it's a loss, then we haven't really lost anything because I can still do the IVF." 

It sounded far easier in my head to have one more loss than it feels in real life.

I've now made the ultrasound tech a nervous wreck too.  She quietly fired up the machine, started ultrasounding, and as soon as she could see anything -- a second faster than I could locate it -- immediately says, "We have a heartbeat," and let out a sigh of relief.

The baby was hanging upside down in my uterus like a bat.  It was kinda comical.

But I couldn't even enjoy it.  I just felt the relief that it was there, and then immediately started thinking about making it one more week.

Pregnancy, for me, is like deployment.  (Actually, pregnancy is worse, because my husband has lived through two deployments; our baby has never lived through pregnancy.)  But pregnancy reminds me of the remarks I made at the 2007 Milblogs Conference:

Posted by: Sarah at 12:00 PM | Comments (20) | Add Comment
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1 I'm glad you - and the baby! - have made it through another week. And I'm glad your mother will be there, not just for a few days, but also on the day of the week.

Posted by: Amritas at July 22, 2009 12:48 PM (+nV09)

2 Whew! I know all your online friends are happy at this news. I'm glad your mother can be with you, you really shouldn't be alone.  It will be very comforting to your husband, too. And as for the man in the sandbox, he really sounds like a nice guy who just doesn't get our culture, but apparently he did love someone, maybe she is lucky her father is taking her away.

Posted by: Ruth H at July 22, 2009 01:01 PM (YpblU)

3 I was writing you an email and figured I should check and see if my answers were here.  I am so glad the growth is spot on. (!!)  But the bleeding just kills me.  What a kick in the pants.  It is a 'don't get too positive/don't start thinking too far ahead' slap in the face and I hate it. 
So I am doubly glad your mom is going to come for a few days and will be there for the next appointment. 
I think what you are saying about pregnancy for you relating so well to deployment emotions makes perfect sense.  And I just wish there was something to put in the mail to help ease the roller coaster effect it has.

Posted by: wifeunit at July 22, 2009 01:38 PM (4B1kO)

4 I am so relieved.  And glad your mom is going to be there.  

Posted by: dutchgirl at July 22, 2009 01:49 PM (hLAkQ)

5

That's great news, and I'm so relieved for you.  Dittos to everything Wifeunit said.  Warm, happy thoughts coming your way.

{Hugs}

Posted by: Barb at July 22, 2009 02:25 PM (z9gCU)

6 Tears in my eyes. The bleeding stinks. I'm sorry that you have to deal with that, but am glad that you were able to see your baby's heartbeat. 

Posted by: Heather at July 22, 2009 03:27 PM (BjblJ)

7

Congratulations!  I've been checking everyday for an update. 

With my first pregnancy (back when I was blissfully ignorant of infertility), I didn't have an ultrasound until 20-weeks.  On the second round, after months of negative HPTs, two miscarriages and a clomid-assisted IUI,  you get very frequent monitoring, which in my case showed a subchorionic blood clot and my doctor basically saying--don't get too attached just yet--wait and see.  It was several more weeks of weekly ultrasounds before the clot was absorbed and I was given the all clear.  So you end up with this love/hate feeling about the ultrasound.  Yes, it reassures you, but it can also get you worried about things you would have never otherwise known about.

I never went so far as to get a home doppler kit, but I seriously considered it.

I'm praying for John Elway.

Posted by: Christa at July 22, 2009 04:28 PM (2qSbp)

8 Dang, I NEVER thought I'd be rooting for John Elway   But in this case, I am so an Elway fan!!!!  Reeaalllly glad to read this today.  Whew.  Enjoy having Mom around, and I'll be praying for more good news next week!!

Posted by: RC at July 22, 2009 06:48 PM (0bg5E)

9 I'm getting my last chemo next Thurs and my mom is coming to be with me for a few days, just like you (but different reason).  Sometimes you just need your mom - and I'm 51 and I STILL do sometimes!
Hoping so badly that you and the baby are ok.

Posted by: Amy at July 22, 2009 09:02 PM (9fDOS)

10 Thinking lots of good thoughts for you and John Elway!

Posted by: Butterfly Wife at July 22, 2009 10:58 PM (x8bmT)

11 You ARE strong enough to do this on your own.  You are just wise enough not to.  I'm praying for John Elway and you and your dear hubby. 

Posted by: Val at July 22, 2009 11:16 PM (5btL/)

12 With the pregnancy and the deployment and the shadows of my life that have almost mimicked yours ... I will throw myself at your feet and come keep you company! I can weed, roll yarn bowls, toss bones for the pup, dirty dishes and cause laundry. Will that help? If that doesn't help we'll create a pouch for you! I'm sure a scientist somewhere has invented the pouch/kangaroo ... we'll find him together!

Posted by: Darla at July 22, 2009 11:28 PM (LP4DK)

13 *Hugs!*  Thinking of you and praying for you!!!

Posted by: Deltasierra at July 23, 2009 02:00 AM (unCAk)

14

Congrats.

 

"Thank heavens I'm an American"

You mean 'Thank heavens your NOT a Muslim in the ME' (or anywhere Sharia Law is in effect or soon to be).

 

That is what we're talking about in that instance, the barbarity of Islam.

 

 

Posted by: tim at July 23, 2009 09:05 AM (nno0f)

15 Whoohooo!  Congratulations, Little Johnny!   Week by week... 

*still holding you on a cushion of loving thoughts and prayers*

Posted by: FbL at July 23, 2009 05:05 PM (HwqvF)

16

SOOO glad to hear this.  I am so, so thankful to hear this and hoping with you for another week.

And this:

Every moment that I am not looking at that ultrasound screen is a moment when I doubt the baby is alive.  I know that is normal for many pregnant women, but for me it has been borne out by too much experience.  Baby #2 died within a day of our seeing it on the ultrasound screen.  And I don't lose babies naturally; I generally have to find out about it and take medicine to get it out.  I won't know it's dead until I see it dead on screen.

Man, did I ever relate to this.  I had both of my miscarriages and my two infections that followed the miscarriages diagnosed via ultrasound.  I came to hate them.  I too, lived for the next ultrasound with my pregnancy with Rusty.  Praying that your ultrasounds contiue to show that beating heart and that precious babe.

Posted by: Stacy at July 23, 2009 09:45 PM (JGYbs)

17 So thankful that everything looked ok on u/s!!  Glad to hear that your mother is coming to town to stay with you, too!

Posted by: Courtney at July 23, 2009 11:47 PM (q408u)

18 *sniffle* Yay!!! *hugs* And yes, thank heavens!!! :-) Will be maintaining thoughts & prayers... *more hugs*

Posted by: Krista at July 24, 2009 01:07 PM (sUTgZ)

19 Hooray!  And may I suggest Gingerbons - made in Australia, ginger coated with a dusting of powdered sugar - ginger that is stretchy, but not candied.  The British Navy used ginger for sea sickness, but it's also good for anyone's nausea.  And you should have a military cure for morning sickness, don't you think?

Posted by: Oda Mae at July 25, 2009 03:55 PM (tKtQ9)

20 Wonderful news. Baby has a heartbeat. And I am so glad your Mother is coming out to visit, cause, sometimes a girl just needs her Mama to lean on and love on.

Posted by: Pamela at July 28, 2009 01:29 AM (NazsP)

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I just got my first call from the husband, ten minutes long with only a slight delay.  He is at his final destination and doing well: his living conditions sound great, there's a good gym, and he sounded really good.  I'm glad.

When he said goodbye, he said, "I love you.  Take care of John Elway."

CaliValleyGirl asked me last night if our baby has a nickname.  I said no, that I'm just here by myself with no one to discuss the baby with, but I guess it does now...

He seemed excited about the John Elway baby.  He has never been optimistic about a pregnancy before, so I find it sweet.

I hope I don't break his heart.

Tim commented that probabilities are moot, that I'm 100% pregnant now and that's all that matters.  I still only feel 50% pregnant.  I will be waiting for the other shoe to drop for a long time.

Posted by: Sarah at 09:54 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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Last week, I got obsessed with probability problems.  Since my likelihood of having a successful pregnancy is 50/50, it mirrors coin toss statistics.  I originally wrote that I had a 6.25% chance of a fourth miscarriage, but I kept thinking about the problem and realized that was too simplistic.  That assumed that I had four chances to get pregnant and struck out on all four.  But that wasn't the case: in fact, I had 22 chances to get pregnant, got pregnant on four of them, and flipped tails on the first three.

One of my good friends is a statistician, so I contacted her and asked her a coin toss problem:  Let's say you flip a coin 22 times and mark down whether each flip is heads or tails.  What is the probability that I could choose four random flips -- say numbers 8, 13, 19, 22 (the months I got pregnant) -- and have them all be tails?

She thought about it and replied:

Posted by: Sarah at 10:48 AM | Comments (20) | Add Comment
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1

You know I'm around no matter what.  And, God love ya, you knew better than to ask this girl about math.  Watched me struggle one too many times to figure out a decent tip, eh?

Lurve you!

Posted by: Guard Wife at July 15, 2009 11:29 AM (M+hWl)

2 So excited for good news! And that I thought to check your site!

Posted by: Wifeunit at July 15, 2009 12:11 PM (+2Ggg)

3 You were right the first time. That is, the chance of getting four tails in a row is 1/16, or 6.25%. The other flips, that you don't look at, don't matter, just like the ones that have already passed don't matter. The chance of getting tails next time is 50%, just like every other time, no matter what you flipped in the past. 

Posted by: David Boxenhorn at July 15, 2009 12:26 PM (AZIQI)

4 All those deep statistical thoughts are giving me bad college flashbacks!  I am relieved for you (at least until next week).  Thank goodness the medical people finally have their act together over there.  

Posted by: dutchgirl at July 15, 2009 12:45 PM (hLAkQ)

5 Yes, David, but it's not four flips in a row. Because you have to consider the fact that I put out one egg every month, but I don't get pregnant every month.

There are two things at work here: the probability of GETTING pregnant and the probability of STAYING pregnant.

Yes, my odds of getting pregnant in any individual month remain the same as any other human female: 1 in 4.  I have roughly borne that out with my 4 pregnancies in 22 ovulations.

Once I am pregnant, the odds of staying that way are the 50/50.

I'm considering "eggs" as flips, not "pregnancies."  Each egg is a coin toss.  Each pregnancy is more complicated than that.  And the flips that you don't look at DO matter if the question you're asking is "what are the odds I still haven't had a healthy baby after 22 ovulations?" instead of "what are the odds I'll keep this baby I am carrying right now?"

I know each successive egg has no bearing on the next, just like coins don't, but cumulatively, I should've theoretically put out 11 good eggs over these past 2 years, but none of those managed to fertilize. So it's more than just four flips, cumulatively. It's 22 flips.

As my stats friend said, picture this:

Let's say you have these two different sequences of 22 coin tosses (keeping with your example of T on the 8th, 13th, 19th, and 22nd tosses):

1) H T H T H T H T H T H T T H H T H T T H H T

2) H H H H H H H H T H H H T H H H H H T H H T

The probability of randomly selecting 4 tails out of these two sequences is different.

Even though both scenarios could be what has happened to me over the past 2 years, I should theoretically be closer to the first.  (Setting aside the fact that we have no way of knowing if my eggs are evenly distributed at all, that is to say that 25% are normal, 25% are balanced, 25% are unbalanced 7, and 25% are unbalanced 22.  It should work out in theory over 100,000 eggs, but who's to say that it really does?)

I am no math expert, but I respectfully think you're wrong.  I think it's more complicated than just four chances...

Posted by: Sarah at July 15, 2009 01:03 PM (TWet1)

6 I read this post very slowly, fearing what was at the end. The graphic at the beginning asks, no, shouts the question, So which is it?

I saw the problem the way David did, assuming that past outcomes had no effect on future ones.  However, at the moment, I think it's more complicated than that. What's the chance of you being pregnant in any given month? I'm no statistician, but I doubt it's just 50% - or that it's even calculable. The probability of your current situation involves that figure, whatever it is, as well as the 50/50 per pregnancy.

Thank you for reprinting the details of how your friend got the answer instead of simply giving us the answer. I may use (x choose y) methodology for my own coin toss problems in the future.

I am impressed by your mental versatility which is evident even from the last few posts. Politics, poetry, statistics ... what don't you do?

Posted by: Amritas at July 15, 2009 01:07 PM (+nV09)

7 The math threw me, bring the statistician to the gulch..just saying. 

Prayers continue, and all of that. 

I keep thinking and praying for each of you....

I know you want to move forward, and I know you want future, and i know you want to start walking forward..

Posted by: awtm at July 15, 2009 02:28 PM (mYtP/)

8 Sorry, Sarah, I misunderstood your question. I thought it was "what is the chance of getting tails four times in a row [assuming that you flip the coin four times]".

I don't understand what your question actually is, though. Now it seems to me like it's "what is the chance of getting tails four times in a row when I try to flip 22 times, and the chance of successfully flipping is 1/4"? But that question really doesn't make sense to me because it seems like the interesting question would be "what is the chance of getting all tails when I try to flip 22 times, and the chance of successfully flipping is 1/4".

Posted by: David Boxenhorn at July 15, 2009 02:31 PM (AZIQI)

9 First, *whew*. I am glad today's news was not bad. I won't say 'good' simply because it has not allowed you to relax. I will continue to pray and look forward to next Wednesday. I'm quite familiar with waiting/living in limbo and I know how exhausting and frustrating it can be. My prayers are for peace and strength (in addition to an incredibly boring and textbook-perfect pregnancy) for you and dh.

Second, you are right...there are two variables at work in this situation. Getting pregnant and staying pregnant. And, while your previous pregnancies have no true bearing (in a statistical sense) on your current pregnancy (or any subsequent pregnancies), they do establish a (really crappy) pattern.

For simplicity's sake, I'd round to the middle and say 5%. Which is better than 0% (for the 'glass is half full' population here) but truly sucks monkey balls (for those with a more practical outlook on life...some might call us cynical) when all you really want is a baby.

Sorry to ramble - I've been working in my Calculus study guide and my brain is stuck on numbers. I'm praying hard and looking forward to hopeful news next Wednesday. (I may be in a cynical mood these days but I'm still an optimist at heart).

Posted by: HomefrontSix at July 15, 2009 02:32 PM (7Qxzl)

10 David -- Now I am the confused one!  I doubt that I got 22 tails, meaning 22 bad eggs in a row.  I am guessing that somewhere interspersed in there were good eggs.  I'm making this up, but like potentially in January 2009, I had a good egg, but I just didn't happen to get pregnant that month.  The next month in Feb, I got pregnant, but that was a bad egg month. 

I am assuming that I have had somewhere around 11 good eggs over the past 22 months, and just lamenting the fact that out of those 11 good ones, I never managed to get pregnant during those months.  I always got pregnant during bad egg months.  The probability of *that* seems to be 4.5%, and it gnawed at me for a week.

Anyway, you're right in the sense that none of this matters anymore and I'd just like to concentrate on the 50% chance I currently have!

Posted by: Sarah at July 15, 2009 02:42 PM (TWet1)

11 My eyes glaze over at statistics because when it comes to flesh and blood sometimes they just don't matter. And because I just don't often pay attention to them. One of my earliest favorite books was, and still remains, "How to Lie with Statistics."  That has nothing to do with your statistics but to my attitude to most of them. If I can't do the figures I just leave it to someone I trust, as you did. I guess when it comes to this type thing I take the most optimistic part I can find and go with that one. That's right, I am a woman and we think with emotions first. Not that we can't logic, but sometimes we just choose not to. Easier that way.  I'm waiting for the next week and the week after that, because I am choosing to believe there will be weeks after that. Like I said, it is your turn.

Posted by: Ruth H at July 15, 2009 02:51 PM (4u82p)

12 The question that I stated above as "interesting" translates into, "what is the chance not of getting pregnant with a good egg after 22 tries". The answer I get is 2.2%. Here's my reasoning:

The expected number of coin flips is 5.5 (22/4). The chance of getting all tails is 1/(2 ^ 5.5) = 2.2%. But I think it's wrong since I don't think the chance of getting pregnant is really 1/4.

In any case, you're right: You're past all that now.

Posted by: David Boxenhorn at July 15, 2009 02:52 PM (AZIQI)

13 I'm so happy you got good news. I will continure to pray that the news stays good. I don't know how you do what you do, you're so strong.

Posted by: Mare at July 15, 2009 02:54 PM (HUa8I)

14 David -- You're right: the 1 in 4 number only comes from looking at what happened after the fact.  I think it comes from a lot of data of many different people, and then the stats are kajiggered.  I don't think it necessarily means that every individual woman has a 25% chance each month, because some women are really fertile and others less so...or the same woman with two different men might bring a different result.  I think it's a ballpark figure that works across the board, but it's hard to apply that to any given specified month and to say that in Aug 2009, Betty Sue has a 25% chance of getting pregnant.  Instead, they say that if you try to have a baby for one year, 80% of women will be successful.  But there's a lot of variety in that sample.

Posted by: Sarah at July 15, 2009 03:15 PM (TWet1)

15

Wait a minute, your prego now, 100%. Yea, yea, I know about the last times, forget that for now (with all due respect), your 100% prego NOW. Screw all that and that mind numbing math, the glass is half full...NOW.

Remember, only Liberals and losers (excuse the redundancy) are pessimistic.

Posted by: tim at July 15, 2009 03:28 PM (nno0f)

16

1)  I love the way your mind works...  with the statistics. 

2)  I'm praying my butt off for you and S's cat. 

Posted by: Val at July 15, 2009 05:42 PM (5btL/)

17 Against all odds (and all goofy statistics), life will find a way.  I'm still praying for you.  Was holding my breath through that whole post, and am so relieved to not see bad news.  So here I sit cheering for Schroedinger's cat. . . .  yeah

Posted by: rc at July 16, 2009 12:07 AM (aJX4Q)

18 *cautiously cheering*

I've been thinking of you almost constantly the last few days.  I suspect if all the hope, love and good thoughts I'm sending your way could truly affect fertility, you'd be having octuplets about now...

*holding my breath for you*

Posted by: FbL at July 16, 2009 12:42 AM (HwqvF)

19 Probability is one thing, but how about actual runs of numbers? Since I have access to some considerable computer power just sitting around (and my minions can do my actual work for me as I play with these numbers) I did a quick 10 simulations with the criteria you hypothesized. I did 100 sets of flips, with 22 series of "flips" (zeros and ones) and then randomly picked 4 flips out of each set, marked how many were 4 tails in a row, and did this 10 times. The series is as follows: 6, 6, 9, 6, 6, 8, 7, 12, 5, 6 And all of those numbers mean nothing, because that's all they are, numbers. They don't show you any probability about your current "flip". My flips are cold and calculating and strongly dependent on the RAND function of Excel. Your personal flip has the support of a while bunch of people both known and unknown to you, the pinnacle of human medical knowledge and technology, and of course, you and your husband. You can't calculate how those affect your "flip". In other words, we're pulling for you, despite the odds.

Posted by: deskmerc at July 16, 2009 03:00 AM (pYOXQ)

20

I am too dumb to get the statistics.  But I can relate, definitely, to waiting for the other shoe to drop, as so many have after multiple miscarriages....  You're on my mind!

Posted by: Allicadem at July 20, 2009 07:21 PM (nlT4X)

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I suppose it's logical but pretty absurd that I enjoy hearing about my friends' children but not their babies.  Any child born before January 2007 does not affect my emotional state at all, but I have a hard time reading about any child born after I started trying to have a baby.  It's dumb, but that's the way it is.  And it sucks if you're one of my friends with kids in that age range.

But I love reading about people's older children, especially when they capture the great parenting days when children learn lessons about effort and show off their knowledge of coral.  Or when they crack me up.

FYI: frustrating parenting days are dreadful to read about.  As if I need any more reason to second-guess my lot in life.

Posted by: Sarah at 09:51 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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I really enjoyed reading this blog post via CG, I was a pro-life atheist, though the message that stuck with me was likely not one the author foresaw. I found comfort in this:

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"If I stay pregnant..."  That phrase gets said around our house often these days.

On the 4th, we had The Talk, the one every military couple has to have right before deployment.  But this time with a twist...

If something happens to you, where do you want to be buried?
If I stay pregnant and something happens to you, do you want me to name the baby after you?
If I stay pregnant and something happens to one of your teammates, do we want to name the baby after him?
If I stay pregnant but something happens to the baby later on, where do we want it to be buried?
If I stay pregnant but something happens to both of us, do we still want to choose the same guardians we chose three years ago?

So we answered all questions, staying as detached as we could from what they mean.

But when I had a tiny bit of bleeding last night, I realized something: No matter how much you think you're not emotionally invested, you actually are.  You actually want this to work out.

And it sucks lying in bed figuring out the probability of flipping four tails in a row.

I have an ultrasound scheduled for 12 hours after my husband is scheduled to deploy.  How's that for emotional torture?

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I'm trying not to get ahead of myself and look forward to this right now, but I am looking forward to it someday:

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